CO129-512-1 Political situation in China- and Canton 30-11-1928 - 23-5-1929 — Page 158

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8.

It is impossible to say what the upshot of

all the intrigues between the leaders of the various

Nationalist factions will be; but, if Marshal Chi ang

should succeed in disposing of the threat to his

domination from the Kwangsi group without recourse to

civil war, he will then still have to reckon with the

"Christian General". Marshal Chiang and Marshal Fêng

Yu-hsiang are both ambitious men. I do not believe

that either of them can be credited with patriotic

motives. Marshal Fêrg's army is superior to that of

Marshal Chiang, and it seems unlikely that the former

would willingly subject himself to Marshal Chiang as President of the Chinese Republic. On the other hand,

the power of the purse is at present with Marshal

Chiang. The threat of civil war, therefore, still

hangs heavily over China; and, of course, if there wete

an armed clash between the Nanking group and the

Kwangsi group, the situation in Hong Kong would again

become very tense and precarious.

9.

There

Meanwhile, as I write, the trouble between

Japan and the Nanking Government is still acute.

is also the fear of disruption in the Foreign

Inspectorate of Chinese Maritime Customs, which would be

a very serious matter for Hong Kong, as the Kowloon

Commissioner of Chinese Maritime Customs is actually

resident in this Colony. But for the moment I am

chiefly concerned to bring to your notice the fact that

the Kwangsi group of the Nationalist party, which under

the leadership of Marshal Li Chai-sum has shown real

friendship towards this Colony, seems now to be less

powerful than it was in the early part of last year.

10/